Report Shows Good & Bad News For Salmon

The story of British Columbia’s salmon in 2026 is not simply one of decline.

 

Nor is it a story of recovery.

 

Instead, the latest assessment from the Pacific Salmon Foundation paints a much more complicated picture: sockeye are returning at encouraging levels in many parts of the province, some southern Chinook and coho populations are doing well, and pink salmon remain abundant in many regions. At the same time, chum have experienced widespread declines and steelhead populations in several watersheds have fallen to alarming levels.

Approximately half of the salmon populations assessed across BC and the Yukon remain below their long-term averages, according to the State of Salmon 2026 Report, the Pacific Salmon Foundation’s third annual assessment of Pacific salmon abundance and trends.

 

The report examines all six species included in its assessment — Chinook, chum, coho, pink and sockeye salmon, along with steelhead — across 10 regions in BC and the Yukon. Rather than judging salmon by the return in any single year, researchers assess both current abundance and longer-term trends, an important distinction for fish populations famous for dramatic year-to-year swings.

 

And this year, those swings provide some valuable lessons.

 

A Good Year Doesn’t Necessarily Mean Recovery

One of the brightest spots is sockeye.

 

Spawner abundance is above the long-term average in every region assessed except East Vancouver Island and Mainland Inlets. In the Fraser, nearly 10 million sockeye returned in 2025, pushing recent spawner abundance well above average.

 

But there is an important catch.

 

Despite the strong number of fish reaching spawning grounds, the report says total Fraser sockeye abundance remains below its long-term average and well below levels seen in the 1990s. The 2026 return, which was expected to be a strong dominant-year run in the Fraser’s familiar four-year cycle, has also come in well below forecast.

 

That contrast is one of the central messages of this year’s report: one strong return is encouraging, but it cannot be viewed in isolation.

 

Pink salmon are also well above their long-term average in many regions, while Chinook present a pronounced north-south divide. Chinook abundance has increased in southern BC, including Vancouver Island and the Fraser, while populations remain below average through much of northern BC and the Yukon.

 

On East Vancouver Island and in mainland inlets, Chinook, coho and pink salmon are all above average. Cowichan River Chinook, in particular, have reached record returns after the number of natural spawners fell to just 500 in 2009. The report attributes the broader improvement to a combination of favourable Strait of Georgia conditions and, for some Chinook populations, hatchery enhancement.

 

Fraser coho have also improved, reaching spawner and total abundance not seen since the late 1990s. Researchers point to both harvest reductions intended to aid Interior Fraser coho and improved early marine conditions as possible contributors.

 

Farther north, the picture changes. Coho populations in regions including Haida Gwaii and the Skeena remain near or below average, illustrating just how differently salmon can fare across the province.

Steelhead Stand Out For The Wrong Reasons

No species in the report raises more concern than steelhead.

 

Steelhead have the lowest abundance of the six species assessed, with spawner abundance below the long-term average in every region where their status could be determined except the Nass.

 

Some numbers are stark.

 

In fall 2025, the test fishery used to assess Thompson River summer steelhead caught zero fish — the first time that had happened in its 40-year history. In the Canadian Columbia River, only one steelhead spawner was recorded in 2025. Two Fraser steelhead populations are already assessed as Endangered by the Committee on the Status of Endangered Wildlife in Canada.

 

There is a glimmer of better news from the Skeena. Initial 2026 reports indicated an improved steelhead return, with the Upper Sustut weir recording its highest count since operations began in 2002. But the report cautions that steelhead monitoring remains sparse, making it difficult to know the condition of many populations with confidence.

 

Chum salmon are also struggling.

 

The report describes their declines as the most precipitous of any salmon species assessed. Spawner abundance is below the long-term average in every region except the Nass, with particularly steep declines in the Yukon, Northern Transboundary region, Haida Gwaii and Skeena.

 

Researchers say there is no single established explanation for the widespread chum decline, but note that changes across the North Pacific, including climate change and possible competition with increasingly abundant hatchery-produced salmon, may be contributing factors.

 

Vancouver Island Tells Two Different Stories

For anglers on Vancouver Island, the report contains both encouraging and sobering findings.

 

On the west coast of the Island, Chinook and sockeye remain above their long-term average for spawner abundance. Barkley Sound sockeye, including fish returning through the Somass River system, are above average for both spawner and total abundance.

 

Yet other species in the same region are headed in the opposite direction.

 

Chum and steelhead are far below their long-term averages, while coho have declined steeply over the past decade. Pink salmon are now scarce in West Vancouver Island rivers despite historical records suggesting they were once abundant.

 

It is a useful example of why the report repeatedly emphasizes salmon biodiversity rather than simply the total number of fish returning to a region. A booming population of one species — or even one run within a species — cannot replace another population that disappears.

 

The Skeena provides a similar example. Pink and sockeye are above average and increasing, but Chinook and chum remain well below historical levels. The report also warns that strong aggregate Skeena sockeye numbers can conceal declines among smaller, genetically and biologically distinct populations that contribute to the resilience of the species as a whole.

A Changing Ocean & Changing Rivers

Salmon have always lived with variable conditions, but the report identifies climate change as their single biggest threat.

 

Warmer rivers, changing stream flows, drought, flooding and marine heatwaves are affecting salmon at virtually every stage of their lives. In freshwater, high temperatures can increase stress and disease susceptibility while drought can reduce access to spawning habitat. Extreme floods can scour spawning areas or wash away incubating eggs.

 

Conditions at sea are changing too.

 

The report says a major marine heatwave resembling the infamous “Blob” of the 2010s reappeared in 2025-26, extending more than 8,000 kilometres across the North Pacific. Warm ocean conditions can change the plankton community salmon depend on, replacing fatty, energy-rich northern prey with less nutritious warm-water species.

 

Climate change is only one part of the equation.

 

For the first time, the State of Salmon report devotes a major section to six human-driven factors affecting salmon: climate change, aquaculture, fisheries, hatcheries, industrial development and urban development. The foundation deliberately focuses on pressures where human decisions can either reduce the problem or lessen its effects.

 

Habitat remains central to that discussion.

 

The report estimates that Fraser Valley salmon have lost about 85 per cent of their historical floodplain habitat as dikes, floodgates and other development disconnected wetlands, side channels and seasonally flooded areas from the Fraser River. Such habitat provides juvenile salmon with productive places to feed, grow and shelter before heading to sea.

 

Hatcheries Can Help — But They Aren’t A Replacement For Wild Salmon

The report also examines a subject familiar to BC anglers: hatchery production.

 

Hatcheries can sustain fishing opportunities and help prevent severely depleted salmon populations from disappearing. But the foundation cautions against treating hatchery fish as a substitute for functioning wild populations.

 

More than five billion hatchery salmon have been released annually into the North Pacific on average over the past decade, according to the report. Research increasingly suggests that when food is limited, enormous numbers of hatchery salmon can increase competition at sea with wild fish.

 

The foundation’s conclusion is not that hatcheries have no role. Rather, it argues that hatchery programs need to be carefully managed so they support fisheries and conservation without undermining the genetic diversity and long-term resilience of wild salmon.

Reasons For Hope & A Warning Against Complacency

For all of the concerning numbers, the 2026 report is not without optimism.

 

Sockeye and pink salmon have produced strong returns in many regions. Southern coho and Chinook are improving. Okanagan sockeye, once close to disappearing, have rebounded through years of work to restore habitat, improve fish passage and supplement populations.

 

Those examples matter because they demonstrate that salmon can respond when conditions improve.

 

The Pacific Salmon Foundation argues that the larger obstacle is no longer simply figuring out what is wrong. In many cases, the problems — and potential solutions — are already understood.

 

What is lacking, the organization says, is coordination and implementation on a scale that matches the problem. Its proposed path forward calls for watershed-based recovery plans connecting First Nations, governments, researchers and stewardship organizations, backed by better monitoring, shared responsibility and long-term funding.

 

For BC anglers, the report offers good reason to celebrate a strong return when it happens.

 

It also offers a reason to look beyond it.

 

A river full of sockeye one year does not erase declining steelhead. Record Chinook returns in one watershed cannot compensate for populations disappearing somewhere else. And the true health of BC’s salmon is measured not simply by how many fish return, but by whether the province retains the extraordinary diversity of runs that have allowed salmon to survive changing conditions for thousands of years.

 

The encouraging part of the 2026 report is that recovery is possible.

 

The uncomfortable part is that some populations may not have much time to wait.

 

Find the full report here: https://stateofsalmon.psf.ca/about/download-the-report/